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Consumer Confidence Survey

Importance: Average **

Influence: Forex, Equity Markets

US Release: Monthly by the Conference Board

EU Release: Monthly by Eurostat (flash estimate between the 21st and 23rd day of each month)

 

Introduction to the Consumer Confidence Survey

The Consumer Confidence Survey is considered a key economic indicator as it is able to forecast the level of future demand for goods and services in the economy (leading indicator). The more confident consumers feel today the more money they will spend tomorrow. The more money they will spend tomorrow the greater the future expected economic growth (as measured by GDP changes).

 

The US CB Consumer Confidence Survey

In the US the “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey” is considered the most influential to investors. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey contains data deriving from 5,000 US households. The participants are answering a questionnaire based on 5 topics:

(1) Their current employment condition

(2) Their future employment condition (6 months ahead)

(3) Their current business condition

(4) Their future business condition (6 months ahead)

(5) Their family income over the next six months (6 months ahead)

The results of the questionnaire are compared with the results of 1985 which are given the value =100 (benchmark year).

 

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a consumer confidence index published monthly by the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. The index is normalized to have a value of 100 (December 1964). Each month at least 500 telephone interviews are conducted (50 questions) to US consumers except the citizens of Alaska and Hawaii.

 

The Effect of Consumer Confidence Affects in the Forex and Equity Markets

The higher the Consumer Confidence Survey the better for the domestic currency and the domestic equity markets.

 

Related Links: The Conference Board | ► Eurostat

 

 

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Consumer Confidence Survey

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